Thursday 25 July 2019
It was originally assumed that the proportion of students in States' schools would remain the same as the previous year.
For the Year 7 intake in 2018, 415 out of 619 were in States' schools: 67%. This continued a trend of gradually decreasing proportions of students in States' schools since 2010, when 74.8% of the cohort entering secondary school went to States' schools.
The total cohort for the Year 7 intake in 2019 is 650 so the expectation was that 436 would attend States' Schools in line with the proportion of the 2018 cohort: 67%. The actual figure is 469, which represents 72% of the cohort. There are therefore 33 more students than expected across the four mainstream States' secondary schools relative to the previous assumption and 54 more than the previous year. As a result additional classes have been added at three of the States' schools to ensure class sizes remain within the accepted range.
The proportion at the grant-aided colleges has therefore decreased from 33% of the cohort in the 2018 intake, to 28% of the cohort in the 2019 intake. Across the three grant-aided colleges, the 2018 Year 7 intake was 204 students. As at March 2019, the projected intake for September 2019 was 181. This includes students already in the grant-aided colleges' respective junior schools, and students moving from States' primary schools to the grant-aided colleges. Had the proportion of the cohort been consistent with the previous year, this would have been a total of 214. Despite the increased cohort size, this number is within the combined capacity of the three colleges, based on the 2018 intake and the addition of a class at Blanchelande.
All figures are correct as at March 2019 when Year 7 places were confirmed and additional space was added to the plans for the new Colleges: this was the best available information and so the assumption was adjusted on this basis. However, variation occurs as students arrive and leave the island, or move between schools, and so figures will vary slightly at any given point in time. Students at Le Murier, Les Voies and St. Anne's are excluded from all figures given above.
