This page contains information on Guernsey's economic activity, measured by the Gross Value Added (GVA) of each sector and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Island.
- Guernsey's total GDP for 2020 is estimated at £3,178 million, which is 2% lower (in nominal terms) than the central estimate for 2019 and 3% lower in real terms (after adjustment using the RPI).
- Guernsey GDP per capita in 2020 is estimated at £50,353; 3% lower in nominal terms than the 2019 central estimate and 4% lower in real terms.
- The finance sector remains the largest single contributor (with a GVA of £1,265 million in 2020), accounting for 40% of the total GDP (or 44% of the total Factor income, which sums industry sectors only and excludes the GVA of households). The GVA of the finance sector fell by 1% in nominal terms and 2% in real terms between 2019 and 2020.
- The largest percentage increase in GVA between 2019 and 2020 was within the Information and communication sector at 5% in nominal terms and 4% in real terms. This sector contributed 2% of 2020 GDP.
- The largest percentage decrease in GVA between 2019 and 2020 was in the Hostelry sector, at -32% in nominal terms and -33% in real terms. The Hostelry sector received the most financial support in 2020, at over £11 million and this is included (as a negative figure) within the calculation of GVA at market prices. Hostelry contributed 1% of 2020 GDP.
- Households contributed 9% of GDP in 2020. Their contribution was 4% higher in nominal terms (3% higher in real terms) than in 2019, mostly due to increasing market values of accommodation.
There is more information in the methodology section below on how GDP relates to GVA and Factor income.
Methodology
- GVA, is calculated as the sum of:
- Compensation of employees (which includes remuneration in the form of wages paid to employees plus estimates of pension and social security contributions paid on their behalf by their employer)
- Gross operating surplus (which is equated to company trading profits and public sector trading body surpluses)
- Mixed income (the remuneration and profits of sole traders)
- Income of households (rental income and owner occupied imputed rents, net of maintenance costs and borrowing costs)
- The sum of these elements gives the GVA for each sector:
- Agriculture, horticulture, fishing and quarrying
- Manufacturing
- Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply
- Water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities
- Construction
- Wholesale, retail and repairs
- Hostelry
- Transport and storage
- Information and communication
- Finance
- Real estate activities
- Professional, business, scientific and technical activities
- Administrative and support service activities
- Public administration and trading bodies
- Education
- Human health, social and charitable work activities
- Arts, entertainment and recreation
- Other service activities
- Households
- (If the households sector is excluded, then this is known as Factor Income, rather than GVA).
- To calculate GVA at market prices, taxes on products are added and subsidies on products are deducted from the basic GVA figures. GDP is the sum (across all sectors) of GVA at market prices.
Methodological Improvements
- The income approach method used in Guernsey was revised in 2017, to better align it with the international standard defined by the United Nations.The revised method was audited by Gross Domestic Product statisticians from the Office for National Statistics. They confirmed that the revised methodology represented "a significant improvement in data quality", but that "the use of only the income approach to measuring GDP will always leave further room for improvements".
- As a result, the Data and Analysis team plan to investigate the feasibility and costs of introducing a second (output) approach as well as implementing some further improvements to the income approach.
- The first step was the enactment of the Economic Statistics (Guernsey and Alderney) Law, 2019, which (having been approved for drafting by the States in November 2015) was approved in April 2020 and put into practice in September 2020. The legislation provides a gateway for the controlled sharing of some data provided to the States of Guernsey for Income Tax purposes with the Data & Analysis team, so it can be used for the purpose of providing economic statistics, such as GVA and GDP.
- The next step will involve the Data & Analysis team asking employers to provide additional data:
- Via regular employer returns, which all employers paying employee tax instalments and/or social insurance contributions complete.
- Via an "economic activity return", which a stratified same of employers will be asked to complete each year.
- If you are interested in being involved in this design of this process or would like any further information, please contact dataandanalysis@gov.gg.
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