Friday 02 March 2012
The Policy Council has today published research into the potential long term implications of demographic and population change on the demand for and costs of public services.
The report, 'Potential Long Term Implications of Demographic and Population Change on the Demand for and Cost of Public Services', considers the impact of a rising number of pensioners and fewer workers, together with increasing life expectancy.
These changes are likely to increase the costs of public services - in particular the provision of pensions and healthcare - and Policy and Research Unit of the Policy Council prepared the report to help decision‐makers within the States to develop policies that take these changes into account.
A Policy Council spokesman said:
"The potential costs of changing demographics are generally acknowledged but often little understood in detail. Rising numbers of pensioners and fewer workers, together with increasing life expectancy is likely to increase the cost, in relative and absolute terms, of public services, in particular of pension and healthcare provision. Increased demand and a worsening dependency ratio are the key drivers of this trend. Despite the substantial uncertainties surrounding projections over such long a time period, particularly in relation to the growth of healthcare costs, such a horizon is useful for illustrating the long‐term fiscal challenges that Guernsey faces.
"These projections should not be seen as alarmist, indeed, the scale of the issues that Guernsey faces relative to many jurisdictions throughout Europe is much smaller, particularly given the prudence previously displayed in building up reserves. Neither should these potential costs be seen as insurmountable or as evidence of deliberate prolificacy on the part of the public sector. The purpose of this report is to put forward potential future scenarios in order to help policy-makers in Guernsey plan for these scenarios. It does not attempt to prescribe policy solutions".
ENDS
Contact information:
Philip Henderson, External Affairs Officer
Tel: 01481 717131
Email: philip.henderson@gov.gg
